الأسعار العالمية للنفط الخام والذهب : تحليل العلاقة التكاملية والسببية وأثرهما على اﻹنفاق الحكومي بالجزائر خلال الفترة 1990-2016
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Date
2018
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جامعة مسيلة
Abstract
Oil is a precious commodity,gold is a precious metal a safe haven. They have a very important role in the economy. Their relationship was historically an important event in 1933 when the original oil concession was traded in gold only in Saudi Arabia, and traded in US dollar.
The relationship between gold and oil prices is complicated by shocks to financial markets or infections that occur in one market moving to other markets.
Algeria is one of the major producers of oil in Africa and the world and is a member of the opec. It relies heavily on its revenues on oil revenues which are a major source of foreign exchange,which makes the GDP linked to the fluctuations in world crude oil prices which have a direct impact on public spending.
In this study,we tried to find out the causal relationship between global crude oil prices and global oil gold prices according to the granger test and the long term equilibrium relation to government expenditure by testing the method of the lower squares according to the following explanatory variables:global crude oil prices,global gold prices, oil exports and public spending an independent variable,during the period 1990-2016using the statistical program eviews.9 .
The study concluded with the following results:oil prices cause gold prices and vice versa. Global gold prices have a positive impact on government spending,which is a catalyst for demand for gold when the fiscal deficits occurs.
Oil exports have a positive impact on government spending,but the relationship is not statistically significant. This indicates that the exploitation of hydrocarbon revenues does not reflect the value of budgets .
Oil prices have a negative impact on government spending when the world crude oil prices decreased,government spending fell,this is due to the high dependence on oil revenues by 98 % and the relationship is statistically significant,which indicating the close correlation budget revenues with HydrocarbonRevenues
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global crude oil prices, world gold prices, causing ganger, ols, government expenditure, Algeria Jel Classification Codes: Q43,C32