مؤشر أسعار الاستهلاك العائلي وعلاقتو بمتغيرات السياسة الاقتصادية الكلية دراسة قياسية لدول شمال افريقيا للفترة ) 2001-2020
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Date
2024-05-16
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University of M'Sila
Abstract
This research studies the relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and macroeconomic policy variables in North African countries during the period 2001-2020. The study builds on the theoretical foundations and research gaps of previous studies, as well as the reality of these variables in the economies of the selected sample. It also examines the stability and cointegration relationship between inflation rates resulting from consumer prices paid annually and each of government spending, broad money supply as a percentage of GDP, and the official exchange rate. The study employs various standard econometric methods for cointegration, causality, and estimation, including CS-ARDL and MM-QR. The first approach explains the long-term relationship obtained and how it is achieved based on the short-term results. The second approach shows the priority of the expenditure policy over other policies, which is consistent with the results of the first study
that focused on Algeria, where inflation rates were controlled during the implementation of an expansionary expenditure policy mainly embodied in development programs. It was also found that there are different types of demand-pull inflation, monetary inflation, and imported inflation, which was confirmed by studying the Consumer Price Index with oil prices, money supply, and exchange rates in Algeria using multiple linear regression.
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Keywords
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Government Spending, Official Exchange Rate, CS-ARDL